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Updated: 6 years 16 weeks ago

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 11:16
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO SRN GA... WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES BEGINS TO EJECT EWD INTO TX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED WELL OFFSHORE...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700MB...WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR...WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 2, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 10:21
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. PIT 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 950-400 MB LAYER...WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS MORNING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP FURTHER NEWD...STRONG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. FURTHER SOUTH...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN FL WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIOR TO FROPA. ..IMY/COHEN.. 02/02/2011 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0301 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD ON THU...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA... ALTHOUGH A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS/...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PENINSULAR AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FLOW WILL SUBSIDE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:20
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 021700Z - 031200Z ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A ZONE OF ENHANCED NLY SURFACE-700 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOB DATA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /40S TO LOW 50S/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 02/02/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THU...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. ...SRN CA...SWRN AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW-NORMAL /GENERALLY 40S AND 50S/ WHERE FLOW IS STRONGEST GIVEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS FROM THE OSCC AND SWCC...FUEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICAL AREA CONSIDERATION ATTM. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
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