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Updated: 6 years 42 weeks ago

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 02:32
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GRAMS.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 01:19
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER LAND OR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 00:26
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 23:47
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN ONE AMPLIFIED STREAM...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...ONE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. IN BETWEEN...AFTER DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LARGER SCALE FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST... LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE...BASED WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 18:48
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST WED FEB 02 2011 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FLORIDA PENINSULA... SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. THUS...WHILE LOWER/MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OF EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS APPEARS BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. NEAR THE NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COULD LINGER THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND SUPPORTING FORCING WEAKENS/DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 02/03/2011 Read more
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