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Updated: 6 years 42 weeks ago

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010 VALID 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN HALF OF SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...NERN AL / EXTREME SWRN NC... ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS REMOVING THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS OF SRN CA. MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE 0.75-1.0 INCH VALUES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY MARGINALLY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS ARE DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS--THUS LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS/GROWTH WILL REMAIN LIMITED. OVER THE SERN STATES...MORNING WSR-88D PROFILER DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1 KM AGL AT KATL AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN GA COMPARED TO AREAS N OVER THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING A DEEPER/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NC NEAR THE CLT METRO WHERE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW RH/S JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL PART OF SERN WY...WILL MAINTAIN SEE TEXT DESIGNATION FOR THIS REGION. ..SMITH.. 10/15/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... DRY CONTINENTAL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS HERE...WHILE A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL IMPORT MOISTURE INTO SRN AZ/CA AND RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS TO THE PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS. ...WRN SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...FAR NERN AL... A VERY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY FIXED OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL YIELD LOWER-MID 20S RH AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED BY LATE-MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...FL PANHANDLE...SRN MS/AL/GA... A PLUME OF VERY DRY AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.3 INCH PER 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS/ WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S...LOW RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS/HIGH KDBI VALUES MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM DEVELOPING. ...MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA /PRIMARILY THE COASTAL RANGE OF ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/ AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MEXICAN UPPER LOW IS IMPORTED INTO THE REGION. DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ONLY RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED. ...CNTRL AND WRN WY...WRN NEB... DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THE N. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID TEENS WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL AREA ATTM...THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010 VALID 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN HALF OF SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...NERN AL / EXTREME SWRN NC... ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS REMOVING THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS OF SRN CA. MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE 0.75-1.0 INCH VALUES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY MARGINALLY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS ARE DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS--THUS LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS/GROWTH WILL REMAIN LIMITED. OVER THE SERN STATES...MORNING WSR-88D PROFILER DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1 KM AGL AT KATL AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN GA COMPARED TO AREAS N OVER THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING A DEEPER/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NC NEAR THE CLT METRO WHERE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW RH/S JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL PART OF SERN WY...WILL MAINTAIN SEE TEXT DESIGNATION FOR THIS REGION. ..SMITH.. 10/15/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... DRY CONTINENTAL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS HERE...WHILE A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL IMPORT MOISTURE INTO SRN AZ/CA AND RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS TO THE PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS. ...WRN SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...FAR NERN AL... A VERY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY FIXED OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL YIELD LOWER-MID 20S RH AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED BY LATE-MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...FL PANHANDLE...SRN MS/AL/GA... A PLUME OF VERY DRY AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.3 INCH PER 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS/ WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S...LOW RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS/HIGH KDBI VALUES MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM DEVELOPING. ...MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA /PRIMARILY THE COASTAL RANGE OF ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/ AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MEXICAN UPPER LOW IS IMPORTED INTO THE REGION. DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ONLY RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED. ...CNTRL AND WRN WY...WRN NEB... DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THE N. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID TEENS WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL AREA ATTM...THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010 VALID 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN HALF OF SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...NERN AL / EXTREME SWRN NC... ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS REMOVING THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS OF SRN CA. MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE 0.75-1.0 INCH VALUES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY MARGINALLY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS ARE DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS--THUS LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS/GROWTH WILL REMAIN LIMITED. OVER THE SERN STATES...MORNING WSR-88D PROFILER DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1 KM AGL AT KATL AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN GA COMPARED TO AREAS N OVER THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING A DEEPER/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NC NEAR THE CLT METRO WHERE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW RH/S JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL PART OF SERN WY...WILL MAINTAIN SEE TEXT DESIGNATION FOR THIS REGION. ..SMITH.. 10/15/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... DRY CONTINENTAL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS HERE...WHILE A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL IMPORT MOISTURE INTO SRN AZ/CA AND RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS TO THE PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS. ...WRN SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...FAR NERN AL... A VERY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY FIXED OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL YIELD LOWER-MID 20S RH AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED BY LATE-MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...FL PANHANDLE...SRN MS/AL/GA... A PLUME OF VERY DRY AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.3 INCH PER 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS/ WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S...LOW RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS/HIGH KDBI VALUES MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM DEVELOPING. ...MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA /PRIMARILY THE COASTAL RANGE OF ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/ AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MEXICAN UPPER LOW IS IMPORTED INTO THE REGION. DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ONLY RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED. ...CNTRL AND WRN WY...WRN NEB... DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THE N. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID TEENS WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL AREA ATTM...THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
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