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Updated: 6 years 33 weeks ago

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... QUIESCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS LOW. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 09:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SWRN CA CONTINUES TO RELAX. CORRESPONDINGLY...MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RUC/HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS. WHILE LOW RH VALUES /AOB 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRI. AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS... SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH PERSISTED IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES. DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES /MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/...RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT WERE COMMON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NWRN MEXICO SHIFTS EWD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS /PER LATEST OSCC FIRE POTENTIAL DISCUSSION/...A CRITICAL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 06:17
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...WITH COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT FL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CENTERED AROUND 600MB/ WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA. THIS AREA MAY SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ..HART/GRAMS.. 02/03/2011 Read more
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