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Updated: 6 years 33 weeks ago

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Feb 3 17:59:02 UTC 2011

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 3 17:59:02 UTC 2011.

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:56
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES FROM W TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN STATES...MOSTLY ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER LAND. AS SUCH...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM SERN LA INTO SW GA/NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RAIN SHIELD DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:32
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2011 Read more
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