Syndicate content SPC Forecast Products
Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 6 years 16 weeks ago

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:31
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDING TO ITS NORTH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS MORE SHARPLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...THE CLOSED LOW NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A TURN EASTWARD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ...SOUTHEAST... COINCIDENT WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE FRONT MAY RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTS...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND 12Z TODAY...INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:31
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDING TO ITS NORTH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS MORE SHARPLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...THE CLOSED LOW NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A TURN EASTWARD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ...SOUTHEAST... COINCIDENT WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE FRONT MAY RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTS...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND 12Z TODAY...INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:31
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDING TO ITS NORTH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS MORE SHARPLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...THE CLOSED LOW NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A TURN EASTWARD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ...SOUTHEAST... COINCIDENT WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE FRONT MAY RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTS...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND 12Z TODAY...INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:31
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDING TO ITS NORTH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS MORE SHARPLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...THE CLOSED LOW NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A TURN EASTWARD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ...SOUTHEAST... COINCIDENT WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE FRONT MAY RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTS...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND 12Z TODAY...INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC MD 86

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 22:37
MD 0086 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SWRN LA NEWD INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA NEWD INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 040436Z - 041030Z FREEZING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF .05"/HR SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION ON ROADS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER TX/NRN MEXICO PROGRESSES EWD. EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS REVEALED BY WV AND RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX ATTM...AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH MID-LEVEL CVA. AS THIS ZONE OF FAVORABLE QG FORCING SPREADS EWD...EXPECT PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN LA TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ATTM FARTHER W ACROSS NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN COOLER AIR ALOFT...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ATOP A SUB-FREEZING LOWER TROPOSPHERE E OF THE SABINE RIVER WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID -- FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN. AREAS OF NWRN LA -- NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LFK /LUFKIN TX/ TO ELD /EL DORADO AR/ -- MAY EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY SNOW...AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA DESPITE WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS FARTHER SE ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND INTO SWRN AND WRN MS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN -- WHICH MAY LAST INTO EARLY MORNING RUSH HOUR IN SOME AREAS. ..GOSS.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 29989285 29999363 30629380 31889320 33189166 33308978 32788944 31449048 30229200 29989285 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:42
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY EVOLVE...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING IN OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCLEAR...BUT MAY EXCEED THE 10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 700 MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWERING TO THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:42
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY EVOLVE...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING IN OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCLEAR...BUT MAY EXCEED THE 10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 700 MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWERING TO THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:42
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY EVOLVE...WITHIN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING IN OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCLEAR...BUT MAY EXCEED THE 10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 700 MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWERING TO THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ..KERR.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 3 23:31:01 UTC 2011

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 17:30
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 3 23:31:01 UTC 2011.

SPC MD 85

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 14:01
MD 0085 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 032000Z - 032330Z A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSLATE E-NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN RATES AOA 0.10 INCH PER 3 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE APPROACHING SATURATION IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING PRECIP. WITH SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING...A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WILL OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC INDICATE THAT BOTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 2-3C RANGE. WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS...RATES AOA 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND OF MDT PRECIP THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TCL TO 35 N LGC. AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY ATTAINS MORE OF AN ELY COMPONENT...THE WET-BULB ZERO LINE AT THE SFC WILL BE NUDGED WWD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM E TO W LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AL. ..COHEN/PETERS.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33828807 34438660 34318561 33498531 33028572 32908683 32998822 33828807 Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC Feb 3, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:51
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600 MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011/ ...SERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL... THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST...AND SHOULD REACH WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN FL WSWWD INTO THE GULF. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. A SLY LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN GULF WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE WRN GULF COAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Read more

SPC MD 84

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:59
MD 0084 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SWRN LA INTO E-CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA INTO E-CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 031858Z - 040000Z MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN RATES COULD REACH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E-CNTRL MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SERN LOUISIANA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE 16Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEPICTS THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WELL...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN LA/MS SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MS TOWARD KJAN AND KMEI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN THIS REGION...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE FROM 3-5C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO MELT BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. LIQUID- EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MS LATER THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR MASS COULD PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE RUC SUGGEST THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE COOLER IN THIS REGION WITH MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL. ..COHEN/PETERS.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30869348 31739263 32469125 33089018 33338864 32448835 31398879 30609067 30289219 30249320 30869348 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:58
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND NERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO DIVE S-SEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SAT/D3...SE OF WHICH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER. ON SUN/D4...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN TX. WHILE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH COULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THERE TO BE LOW POTENTIAL THAT STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..COHEN/GARNER.. 02/03/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
News
Industry News
Weather Update