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Updated: 6 years 42 weeks ago

SPC Feb 4, 2011 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:21
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED/PROGRESSIVE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. INITIALLY...SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY. THEREAFTER...FOCUS TURNS TO DAYS 6/7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CONSENSUS PROGGED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:21
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED/PROGRESSIVE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. INITIALLY...SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY. THEREAFTER...FOCUS TURNS TO DAYS 6/7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CONSENSUS PROGGED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 02:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:40
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED FL...TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE CONUS WILL BE VERY LOW AS COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN. ANY TSTMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WELL OFFSHORE THE FL COAST. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:40
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED FL...TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE CONUS WILL BE VERY LOW AS COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN. ANY TSTMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WELL OFFSHORE THE FL COAST. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:40
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED FL...TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE CONUS WILL BE VERY LOW AS COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN. ANY TSTMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WELL OFFSHORE THE FL COAST. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:40
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED FL...TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE CONUS WILL BE VERY LOW AS COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN. ANY TSTMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WELL OFFSHORE THE FL COAST. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:38
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE A LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND WARM SECTOR ADVANCEMENT SEEMS LOW...WITH EARLY DAY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS OTHERWISE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:38
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE A LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND WARM SECTOR ADVANCEMENT SEEMS LOW...WITH EARLY DAY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS OTHERWISE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:38
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE A LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND WARM SECTOR ADVANCEMENT SEEMS LOW...WITH EARLY DAY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS OTHERWISE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 23:38
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY. COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE A LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND WARM SECTOR ADVANCEMENT SEEMS LOW...WITH EARLY DAY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK...WITH ELEVATED TSTMS OTHERWISE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2011 Read more
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