Syndicate content SPC Forecast Products
Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 6 years 42 weeks ago

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS SAT WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING AN EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...CAROLINAS... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EXTEND FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB FOR ABOUT 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. ALTHOUGH TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC UVV FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ..JEWELL.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 4 16:44:02 UTC 2011

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 4 16:44:02 UTC 2011.

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:27
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST... MIDLEVEL LOW/PV ANOMALY OVER NWRN TX IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE NNEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER SE...SURFACE CYCLONE ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT OFF THE SRN LA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD THE FL PNHDL...ALONG WARM FRONT RETREATING NEWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. BY TONIGHT...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE NC OUTER BANKS BY SAT MORNING. WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDANT TO ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/ENLARGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. A PLUME OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE SUSTENANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:27
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF COAST TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST... MIDLEVEL LOW/PV ANOMALY OVER NWRN TX IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE NNEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER SE...SURFACE CYCLONE ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT OFF THE SRN LA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD THE FL PNHDL...ALONG WARM FRONT RETREATING NEWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. BY TONIGHT...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE NC OUTER BANKS BY SAT MORNING. WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDANT TO ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/ENLARGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. A PLUME OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE SUSTENANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING SRN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT A OF WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY OF TX...LIGHT WINDS...POOR MIXING/LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER SRN CA BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:59
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ..COHEN/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS COLD...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTION OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES APPEARS UNLIKELY. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:52
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT. APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SOUTHEAST... SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. ...PACIFIC NW... KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED. ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:52
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT. APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SOUTHEAST... SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. ...PACIFIC NW... KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED. ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:52
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT. APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SOUTHEAST... SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. ...PACIFIC NW... KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED. ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:52
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT. APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SOUTHEAST... SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. ...PACIFIC NW... KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED. ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 06:52
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT. APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SOUTHEAST... SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION. WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS. ...PACIFIC NW... KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED. ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011 Read more

SPC MD 87

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 05:29
MD 0087 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS NE TX...SERN OK...CENTRAL/SRN AR...CENTRAL/NRN LA...CENTRAL/NRN MS...EXTREME SWRN TN...EXTREME NWRN AL.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NE TX...SERN OK...CENTRAL/SRN AR...CENTRAL/NRN LA...CENTRAL/NRN MS...EXTREME SWRN TN...EXTREME NWRN AL. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 041128Z - 041700Z FREEZING RAIN WITH GEN .05-.10 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER BROAD SWATH FROM S-CENTRAL LA NEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MS...MOVING/EXPANDING NEWD OVER MORE OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE BURSTS...SOME WITH THUNDER...BRIEFLY WILL OFFER .10-.25 INCH/HOUR FREEZING RAIN RATES. FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADE TO SNOW WWD ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NWRN LA AND S-CENTRAL/SERN AR. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIEST EMBEDDED BANDS AND SWATHS WWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NE TX AND SWRN OK...SWD TO NEAR I-20. BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP RELATED TO ELEVATED WAA/ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX RETION...AR...AND MS AT FASTER RATE THAN ITS GENESIS REGION SHIFTS EWD ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS LA AND E TX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO DCVA...IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT IS EJECTING NEWD FROM W TX...ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA. NET EFFECT SHOULD BE EXPANSION OF ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...WHILE WET-BULB EFFECTS LEAD TO ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY 9 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER OVER PORTIONS SRN MS...TRENDING TO AROUND 4-5 KFT OVER CENTRAL LA AND DISAPPEARING OVER E TX AND NWRN LA...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TRANSITION ZONE...WHICH ALSO CORRESPONDS TO SATURATION/LIFT NEAR BASE OF DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYERS ALOFT...SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR. LTG DETECTION EQUIPMENT ALSO HAS OBSERVED CG STROKES DURING PAST HOUR FROM MORE DISCRETELY CELLULAR CONVECTION FORMING INVOF POE...AND MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD BEFORE MERGING INTO BROADER PRECIP PLUME. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 650 MB -- ABOVE SUPERFREEZING LAYER BUT WELL WITHIN RANGE WHERE SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPS ARE BEING PROCESSED THROUGH AN LFC...BENEATH MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34579602 35029543 34829232 35198986 35028819 34568769 33688801 32348877 31139048 30559238 32039445 32519580 33629628 34579602 Read more

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Feb 4 10:41:01 UTC 2011

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 04:40
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 4 10:41:01 UTC 2011.

SPC Feb 4, 2011 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:21
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED/PROGRESSIVE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. INITIALLY...SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY. THEREAFTER...FOCUS TURNS TO DAYS 6/7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CONSENSUS PROGGED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:21
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED/PROGRESSIVE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. INITIALLY...SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY. THEREAFTER...FOCUS TURNS TO DAYS 6/7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CONSENSUS PROGGED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Read more

SPC Feb 4, 2011 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 03:21
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLY THAT LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY/MID WEEK. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED/PROGRESSIVE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES. INITIALLY...SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY. THEREAFTER...FOCUS TURNS TO DAYS 6/7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CONSENSUS PROGGED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL TO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Read more
News
Industry News
Weather Update